William R. Cline is a senior fellow emeritus at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, with which he has been associated since 1981. He was deputy managing director and chief economist of the Institute of International Finance from 1996 to 2001, and earlier a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and an official in the U.S. Treasury Department. He is also president of Economics International Inc.
Case
Businesses and 25 states say Trump's 10% and 12.5% Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies are a pretext to revive struck-down global tariffs. The administration says they lawfully answer forced-labor import failures. As of September 30, 2026, no court has ruled.
Role at the time: Senior fellow emeritus at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in a PIIE policy brief
Statement summary
In a policy brief published in August 2026 and revised in September, William R. Cline of the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that the 10% to 12.5% tariffs are at least 40 to 50 times what could be warranted by the U.S. exports lost and imports increased because of trade in goods made with forced labor. He said that, as a result, the forced-labor provision "does not constitute a credible basis for replacing the 'reciprocal' tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court."
“As a consequence, the forced-labor provision does not constitute a credible basis for replacing the "reciprocal" tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court.”
Relative to the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, Cline criticizes them as vastly out of proportion to the harm cited and rejects the forced-labor provision as a credible basis for them, which meets the label's test. His argument is economic, not legal. The closest competing label is Challenged the characterization, because he disputes the justification, but he also concludes the tariffs are far larger than warranted.
Statement dates: August 20, 2026
Statement dates: August 20, 2026
