Jonathan P. Caulkins says the border was not literally sealed to fentanyl
Jonathan P. CaulkinsProfessor of operations research and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, in an email interview with PolitiFact
Caulkins disputed the premise that the borders had been sealed to fentanyl and noted that continuing deaths show ongoing entry.
Responding to
Maine’s decrease in overdose deaths in 2025 and 2026 occurred because the Trump administration sealed the border.
“We did not literally seal the borders (to fentanyl)” “Obviously some is still getting in; otherwise deaths would be zero.”
Reporting
Where this statement fits
Did border policy cause Maine’s overdose deaths to fall?
Vice President JD Vance said Maine’s decline in overdose deaths followed the Trump administration’s sealing of the border. State data confirm a decline in 2025, but the trend began before the administration took office. Drug-policy and public-health researchers cited multiple potential contributors and said the available evidence does not establish border policy as the cause.
Source and context
Reporting
About this source
Reports named interviews with University of Maine, Carnegie Mellon, University of Maryland, Georgetown, and Brown drug-policy and public-health researchers, plus a response from the vice president’s office.
Before the quotation
Vance attributed Maine’s overdose decline to the Trump administration having sealed the border.
After the quotation
The response addresses the causal attribution and does not dispute that Maine’s overdose deaths declined.
How this statement is classified
The label describes this statement's response within the context above.
Why this label?
The statement directly challenges the factual premise used in Vance’s causal attribution.
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- People and groups discussed
- JD Vance
More from this case
Read the full casePeter Reuter says there is no proof the administration's steps caused the overdose decline
“there is no proof”Read statement
Regina LaBelle says the specific policies behind falling overdose deaths are hard to pin down
“It is very difficult to parse out with certainty the specific policies that caused overdose deaths to come down.”Read statement
Marcella Sorg says the evidence points to multiple factors, not the border alone, behind Maine's overdose decline
“The evidence supports multiple factors for this reduction in overdose deaths, especially fentanyl deaths, rather than pointing to a closing the US border as a single cause.”Read statement
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- Jonathan P. Caulkins says the border was not literally sealed to fentanyl
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The Dispute Index. "Jonathan P. Caulkins says the border was not literally sealed to fentanyl". First published: 2026-09-09. Last updated: 2026-09-25. https://disputeindex.com/events/189-caulkins-disputed-the-premise-that-the-borders-had